PRESENTED TO THE MEMBERS OF THE BUDDHA CENTER ON SATURDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2014.

The present “Buddha-age” in the Buddhist historical reckoning has reputedly seen four Buddhas, beginning with Kakusandha, followed by Konagamana, Kassapa, and Gotama. Gotama was of course the historical Buddha who flourished about 440 BCE. According to the earliest calculation, the duration of an age is equal to the time it takes for the longevity of human beings (not necessarily Homo sapiens) to devolve from 80,000 to 10 years and then evolve back to 80,000 years. According to the earliest discourse in which this concept first appears, the Cakkavatti-Sihanada Sutta (DN 26), or Lion’s Roar on the Turning of the Wheel, the lifespans are reported to devolve and evolve at the rate of half of the previous lifespan per generation. This corresponds to 234,620 years and 7 days in total (see paras. 14–22). We are currently in the descending cycle and moving towards the sattantarakappa or “sword interval” of civilizational collapse and renewal, followed by the appearance of the next buddha in roughly 160,000 years according to this calculation, when civilization is at its zenith. Interestingly, assuming human beings don’t become extinct, at that time we will probably be living in a post-human, multi-planetary or interstellar civilization.

Gotama will be succeeded by a Fifth Buddha, who is given the Pali name Metteyya; Maitreya in Sanskrit; Jampa in Tibetan. This name means “loving,” “kind,” “friendly,” or “merciful,” from metta, love, and mitra, friend. Currently he resides as a bodhisattva in the Tusita “contented” or “joyful” world, four planes above our own, where the lifespan is 576 million human years.

Some historical claimants to the title of Maitreya include:

Claimants to the Title or Role of Maitreya

1. Jesus of Nazareth (c. 4 BCE–30/33 CE): Some New Age and Theosophical groups have identified him with Maitreya or his consciousness.
2. Fu Dashi (c. 470–527 CE): Chinese monk who implied he was Maitreya and founded a Maitreya sect under Liang Wudi.
3. Faqing (d. 515 CE): Monk from Northern Wei China who led a rebellion claiming to be a “New Buddha,” identified with Maitreya.
4. Xiang Haiming (fl. 613 CE): Rebel leader during the Sui dynasty who claimed the imperial title and the identity of Maitreya.
5. Song Zixian (fl. early 7th century CE): Magician and rebel who claimed to be an incarnation of Maitreya.
6. Wu Zetian (624–705 CE): Empress of China who associated herself with Maitreya imagery to legitimize her rule.
7. Wang Huaigu (fl. 713 CE): Rebel during the Tang dynasty who declared himself a “New Buddha,” i.e., Maitreya.
8. Budai (907–923 CE): Itinerant monk regarded in Chinese folk tradition as a future Maitreya figure.
9. Gung Ye (d. 918 CE): Korean ruler and self-proclaimed Buddha, linked to Maitreya by some followers.
10. Wang Ze (d. 1047 CE): Rebel who declared Maitreya had replaced Śākyamuni and led an uprising in Hebei.
11. Lin Qing (d. 1813 CE): Co-leader of the Eight Trigrams Rebellion; claimed to be Maitreya reincarnated.
12. Bahá’u’lláh (1817–1892): Founder of the Baháʼí Faith; followers see him as fulfilling prophecies including that of Maitreya.
13. Lu Zhongyi (1849–1925): 17th patriarch of Yiguandao; followers identify him as a Maitreya figure ushering in the apocalypse.
14. Mirza Ghulam Ahmad (1835–1908): Founder of the Ahmadiyya movement; followers believe he fulfilled the Maitreya prophecy.
15. Peter Deunov (1864–1944): Bulgarian mystic and founder of Esoteric Christianity; claimed to embody spiritual forces including Maitreya.
16. Jiddu Krishnamurti (1895–1986): Raised as the Theosophical Society’s “World Teacher” and Maitreya, but renounced the role in 1929.
17. Samael Aun Weor (1917–1977): Founder of the Gnostic Movement; claimed to fulfill the role of Maitreya.
18. L. Ron Hubbard (1911–1986): Founder of Scientology; indirectly associated by some with messianic roles, including Maitreya.
19. Franklin Jones (Adi Da) (1939–2008): Declared to be Maitreya by a disciple in 1984; never openly claimed the title himself.
20. Rajneesh (Osho) (1931–1990): Explicitly identified as Maitreya in 1988; his disciples promoted the claim.
21. Benjamin Crème (1922–2016): Theosophist who claimed to channel and receive messages from Maitreya since 1975; claimed Maitreya was bodily present on Earth from 1977.
22. Claude Vorilhon (Raël) (b. 1946): Founder of Raëlism; claims Maitreya is one of many extraterrestrial spiritual guides.
23. Joseph Emmanuel (fl. late 20th century): Founder of the “Mission of Maitreya,” claiming to fulfill multiple messianic roles.
24. Li Hongzhi (b. 1951): Founder of Falun Gong; proclaimed himself a Buddha, and some followers equate him with Maitreya.
25. Raj Patel (b. 1972): Writer and economist; mistakenly identified as Maitreya by followers of Share International, but denies any such role.
26. Ram Bahadur Bomjon (b. 1990): Nepalese ascetic; declared himself “Maitriya Guru” in 2012. Currently under scrutiny for abuse allegations.

Many of these are regarded as cults, especially Scientology, Adidam, the Rajneesh Movement, Raelism, the Mission of Maitreya, and Bomjon.

In the Tibetan tradition, there are numerous references to emanations of Maitreya. There are also Mahayana sutras purportedly inspired by Maitreya.

The first Buddhist reference to Metteyya appears in the Cakkavatti-Sihanada Sutta, called the Lion’s Roar on the Turning of the Wheel. This is an unusual discourse in that, whereas most discourses record a question-and-answer session between the Buddha and a questioner, whether a visitor or a monastic, this discourse is represented as an unsolicited sermon by the Buddha, while he was staying at Matula in the Magadhan territory.

This discourse describes the progressive devolution of humans over time because of the disappearance of the Wheel Treasure, a clear metaphor for the teaching. Because of bad government, unwholesome qualities proliferate such as poverty, theft, violence, killing, lying, sexual wrongdoing, gossip, wrong views, and loss of respect for elders, accompanied by a progressive decrease in human longevity, at the end of which time people will live like animals.

This will culminate in a time called the “sword interval,” when human society will break down completely and human beings will kill each other, leaving only a small remnant of survivors. Interpreted literally, this will only take a week (interestingly, this only became technically possible since the invention of the atomic bomb in 1945). James Lovelock, the founder of Gaia Theory, has suggested that climate change will result in a general depopulation on the order of billions of people.  In reaction against the devastation, the survivors will decide to establish a wholesome society, opposite to that that prevailed before, and with each subsequent generation, the life span will double.

The discourse says, “in that time of the people with an 80,000 year life span, there will arise in the world a Blessed Lord, an Arahant fully enlightened Buddha named Metteyya, endowed with wisdom and conduct, a Well-Farer, Knower of the worlds, incomparable trainer of men to be tamed, Teacher of gods and humans, enlightened and blessed, just as I am now” (DN 26.25). The text goes on to state that Metteyya’s order will be ten times larger than the order of the Buddha. This is the only mention of Metteyya in the Pali Canon. Later traditions describe him as a World Ruler. He is also associated with Shambhala, which will manifest in 2424 according to the Kalachakra.

A common statement that one reads in the literature is that a Buddha appears at the nadir of human civilization when he is most needed. However, although Gotama appeared when the human lifespan was about 120 years, Metteyya will appear when the human lifespan is about 80,000 years. Consequently, this statement is not supported by the discourses. Of even greater interest is that this story encodes a precise period that we can use to predict the advent of Metteyya, regardless of whether we interpret this mythos of human longevity literally or not. Note the precise language of the text: during each generation, the life span is reduced by intervals of half down to 10, then increases by doubling back up to 80,000 years, with a seven-day interval at the reversal point, corresponding to the “sword interval” or “age of science.” The discourses also state that the human lifespan at the time of the Buddha was 120 years. It is also clear that we are on the descending arc. It is a simple procedure to add up these numbers.

A similar scheme is found in the Nidanakatha, the introductory text to the Jatakas, except that the progression is from 10 to 84,000 years and back again and is equated with one year per century, corresponding to an antarrakappa or “intermediate cycle.” However, 80,000 and 84,000 appear to be metaphors for “an arbitrarily large number” (e.g., 84,000 teachings or “dharma doors,” etc.; see Sang-jin Park, Under the Microscope (2013), p. 62), and need not be interpreted literally, like the number 40 in the Bible.

According to the Surangama Sutra, a Mahayana discourse translated in the eighth century, the Buddhist philosophy will be forgotten after 5,000 years from the Buddha’s passing. Similarly, the Princeton Dictionary of Buddhism refers to an early tradition that Maitreya will appear 4,500 years after the Buddha (op. cit., s.v. Maitreya, p. 517). Other traditions say 10,000 years. There is also a 10,000-year interpretation of the Kali Yuga. According to a tradition preserved in the Pali discourses, the Buddha said that the order would disappear after 1,000 or even 500 years, but he never connected this with the appearance of Maitreya as far as I know. No tradition puts the complete forgetting of the dharma sooner than 4,500 or 5,000 years in the future. Since this is a precondition for the appearance of a Buddha, none of the current or historical claimants can assert their identity with Maitreya based on strict Buddhist criteria.

The post-canonical Anāgatavaṃsa also predicts that Metteyya will appear before the end of the age (a vast but incalculable period). This chronicle also refers to five disappearances: of attainment, conduct, learning, outward form, and finally the disappearance of the relics that constitutes the last stage referred to above. As we are now in the middle of the third millennium of the Buddhist era, according to this schema we are in the age of learning, which will last for almost another 600 years approximately. Corrupt government, secularism, climate change, environmental degradation (also predicted in the Book of Revelation), the decline of the order, and the gradual disappearance of the teaching from the world will characterize this stage or age.

The prophecy concerning the longevity of human beings when Maitreya appears is fascinating in view of current scientific efforts to extend human life. Far from being a pipe dream, biologists and other scientists who are currently working on life extension point out that it is only necessary for a human being to add a single year for each year of life lived for functional immortality to be achieved. Already we have sophisticated prostheses, artificial skin that can be “printed” on a dot matrix printer, and synthetic organs that have been produced on 3D printers. This technology is only going to advance in the future. Technologist and inventor Ray Kurzweil expects major breakthroughs in this regard beginning in the 2030s, including  nanotechnology, AI,  biotechnology, genetic reprogramming, senescent cell clearance, AI-designed medicine, mind uploading, and human-machine integration.

String theorist Michio Kaku, certainly one of the most intelligent people on the planet, has predicted that there are children alive today who will live to be a thousand years old. The Pali Canon also refers to human beings living to a  thousand ears old. Kurzweil has even suggested that functional human immortality may be achieved by 2045. Is it possible that these developments will overlook some vital aspect of human neurobiology, resulting in the loss of the capacity for or perhaps interest in spiritual cultivation? In this way, the teaching may be engineered out of existence, thus fulfilling the Buddhist prophecy that the teaching will be forgotten by all but a few.

A few claimants, including the Bahá’ís, have based their claims on the 5,000-year cycle, but dated from the advent of the Kali Yuga in 3102 BCE rather than the passing  of the Buddha in or about 400 BCE. The Kali Era (KE) year 5000 corresponds to 1899. The year 2500 of the Buddhist Era (BE) was 1956, based on the erroneous Theravada calculation. This period was characterized by intense interest in spirituality at in the dawn of the Theosophical Enlightenment that led to the 1960s counterculture, the New Age, and the proliferation of Buddhism in the West, which began officially with the Buddhist mission to the West of Allan Bennett (Bhikkhu Ananda Metteyya) in 1908.

The 5,000-year cycle is cited in the Brahma-vaivarta Purana in relation to the Kali Yuga. As is well known, the Mayan cycle is 5,125 years and ended in 2012.

The Surangama Sutra states that Five Disappearances will precede the end of the age of the teaching: the disappearance of emancipation, the method, learning, symbols, and relics. While one might argue that the attainment of emancipation has disappeared (some will dispute this), the method, learning, symbols and relics are all at least partly known, remembered, and indeed experiencing something of a revival today. Therefore, these criteria have yet to be met. Even though one might argue that Buddhism is degenerate, it is certainly far from true that it has been forgotten.

In Buddhist Mahayana Texts. there is a footnote in which F. Max Muller quotes the Mahasannipata-sutra as follows:

After my Nirvana, in the first 500 years, all the Bhikshus and others will be strong in deliberation in my correct Law. … In the next or second 500 years, they will be strong in meditation. In the next or third 500 years, they will be strong in “much learning,” i.e. bahusruta, religious knowledge. In the next or fourth 500 years, they will be strong in founding monasteries, &c. In the last or fifth 500 years, they will be strong in fighting or reproving. The pure (lit. white) Law will then become invisible.

Note that deliberation precedes meditation. Muller adds, “The question therefore amounts to this, whether in that corrupt age the law of Buddha will still be understood? And the answer is that there will be always some excellent Bodhisattvas who, even in the age of corruption, can understand the preaching of the Law.”

No one accepts the accuracy of the Theravadin Buddhist Era anymore, the preferred date of the Buddhas passing now lying between 420 and 380 BCE approximately or, in round numbers, 400 BCE. Thus, the last 500-year period referred to, during which the Buddhist philosophy  is overtaken by corruption, sectarianism, and dissension, corresponds to the period from 1600 to 2100 CE and is about to be superseded by the disappearance of popular institutional Buddhism and the “appearance,” if that is the word, of esoteric or “invisible” Buddhism.

Therefore, there is some scriptural basis for the view that the 21st century represents a decisive moment in the global transmission of esoteric Buddhism.

Conclusions

1. Gotama is not the first Buddha, and he will not be the last. He was a reformer, not an originator. Gotama is the fourth Buddha of five that will have appeared during the present historical age. The fifth Buddha is called Maitreya, which means “the Compassionate One.”
2. Human beings were originally very long-lived and are in the process of devolving, after which they will evolve again. Thus, every age  has ascending and descending arcs. Note that “human” does not necessarily imply Homo sapiens or even any terrestrial species of Homo, of which 12 to 15 have been identified so far. Longevity is a characteristic of the divine beings and, as I discussed in my talk, “Near-Earth Realms, Fallen Angels and Human Beings in Buddhist Cosmology,” the original humans were divine beings inhabiting the realm of the radiant devas (abhassara) in Buddhist cosmology, when they fell into progressively more material and sensual worlds due to desirous attachment. Finally, we are born into the bodies of animals, which paradoxically undergo a period of evolution as a result.
3. Gotama was not a theist because he denied the reality of the personality and the personality of reality.
4. There have been many dicey Maitreya claimants, culminating in the late 19th/early 20th century dawn of the New Age movement. Maitreya also inspired several Mahayana discourses, especially in the Tibetan tradition.
5. Human degeneration originates in the loss of the teaching by the rulers of society, which subsequently fail to uphold the government in accordance with Buddhist principles. This initiates a descent into animality. Human devolution will end in a catastrophe whereby civil society disintegrates and a remnant reactively resolves to follow the path of righteousness and reestablishes society on this basis. It appears from the discourses that this cycle repeats indefinitely. We know that Homo sapiens may have experienced this type of catastrophe before, when the total number of people was reduced to about three to ten thousand individuals (e.g., Toba catastrophe theory, about 74,000 years ago).
6. Maitreya will appear in the distant future, after a long period of civilizational decline, at the zenith of a new golden age.
7. Buddhas may also appear at the zenith of human evolution as well as at the nadir.
8. There are traditions of a 5,000 and a 2,500-year cycle. The latter will culminate about 2100 CE.
9. Longevity may also be created technologically, and Shambhala is explicitly described as being extremely advanced in terms of science and technology, like Uttarakuru in the Pali Canon where human longevity is stated to be a thousand years. The coexistence of more than one human terrestrial society is extremely interesting in view of  the UFO phenomenon, one proposed explanation for which is that UFOs represent the technology of a more advanced terrestrial society, also referred to in the Mahabharata and in the Lotus Sutra for example.
10. Human science and technology might also cause the teaching to be forgotten, either because of changes to the brain or simple disinterest as people surrender to their worldly lives overwhelmed by increasing sensory input. However, scientific advancement may also reveal the spiritual dimension of reality, leading to the unification of science and spirituality.
11. The teaching has not in fact disappeared, so the prophecy of Maitreya cannot be fulfilled now nor could it have been at any time in the past.
12. According to the 2,500 cycle, we have been in the last 500-year cycle of dharma degeneration since 1600 CE, the final millennium of which began about 1100 CE.
13. The next 500-year cycle of Buddhism, which will culminate in the appearance of Shambhala, is “invisible” or esoteric dharma. We are entering that stage now. However, there is no association with Maitreya, but a so-called “second” Buddha (like Padmasambhava) might appear on the world stage, perhaps in the 21^st century.
14. One might speculate that an emanation of Maitreya will be associated with Shambhala, which will manifest on earth in 2424, which elsewhere I have shown to be the start of the Age of Aquarius so-called, based on the accepted precessional correction (ayanamsa) and the association of Aquarius, the sign of the eleventh house, with Friendliness and Compassion.

Revised Monday, April 21, 2025 CE

Appendix

Other dates concerning the coming of Maitreya

mid-21st century (Theosophy, New Age)
several millenia (Mahayana, Tibetan)
30,000 years (Encyclopedia of Eastern Philosophy and Religion, p. 217)
80,000 years (Pali Canon)
10 million years (Ultimate Extinction of the Dharma Sutra)
tens of millions of years (Sutra of the Total Annihilation of the Dharma)
5 billion years (Mahayana)
5,670,000,000 years (Yoshiru Tamura, Introduction to the Lotus Sutra (2014), p. 85)
5.67 billion years (Princeton Dictionary of Buddhism)
5,706,000,000 years (Infinite Life Sutra)

Notes

1. Tibetan tradition ascribes the following works to Maitreya: The Ornament of Clear Realization, the Ornament of the Mahayana Sutras, the Ultimate Continuum of the Mahayana, the Distinction Between the Middle and Extremes, and the Distinction Between Phenomena and Their Nature. These works constitute part of a set of thirteen classic Indian texts that make up the core curriculum of sutra studies in many of the monastic colleges of Tibetan Buddhism. These are all in the course of being translated and published by Shambhala. These sutras are attributed to Asanga, the 4th century CE arhant, born in what is now Pakistan. Asanga, or Vijnanavada, as he is also known, founded the Yogachara school, along with his half-brother, Vasubandhu. According to his biographer, Paramartha, Asanga would travel in the mental body to the Tushita realm at night, where he received teachings directly from Maitreya. The next day he lectured on these teachings to his disciples.
2. This sutta also contains important teachings on the one refuge, in which the Buddha equates dhamma with self-knowledge or “mindfulness”; meditation on the body, feelings, mind, and mind-objects; overcoming the power of Mara through the accumulation of merit; the Road to Power, consisting of the concentration of intention, energy, consciousness, and investigation accompanied by an effort of will; and metta meditation.
3. Thus, each Buddha appears at the nadir of the descending arc of human civilization, and proclaims the dharma, which triggers an ascending arc, which expands, peaks, and reverses course into a new descending arc, and so forth. This also appears to be the view of the Lotus Sutra. However, the picture that emerges in the Pali suttas differs somewhat. The ascending and descending arcs occur by themselves; the ascending arc is triggered rather by an interval of destruction; golden ages and pratyekabuddhas arise of themselves, without any reference to dharma; and a Buddha can appear at any point in this process, or even not appear at all. Yet those universes in which dharma never manifests still experience ascending and descending arcs as well as pratyekabuddhas.
4. The Mahapadana Sutta (DN 14.1.7) gives a slightly different progression, from 80,000 years (Vipassi) to 20,000 years (Kassapa), at intervals of 10,000 years, followed by 100 years (Gotama), but it is not possible to calculate a time interval from this progression as the rate is not given.

 

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